SRCCUTOVERDESTIndependent · No vendor bias · Updated Apr 2026
Phase · ROI

When does the migration pay itself back?

You have an estimate. The real question is the break-even month. Enter your migration cost, current monthly on-prem, and target monthly cloud, the calculator shows when cumulative savings cover the migration project.

Break-even calculator

When does the migration pay itself back?

Monthly net savings

+$9K

Cloud saves money vs on-premise.

ROI analysis

Break-even

45 mo

3-year ROI

-19%

3-year net

$-76,000

5-year net

+$140K

36-month cumulative net

M3
$-373,000
M6
$-346,000
M12
$-292,000
M18
$-238,000
M24
$-184,000
M30
$-130,000
M36
$-76,000

Estimates for guidance only. Actual savings depend on workload efficiency, cloud pricing changes, and hidden cost management.

Savings sources

What drives the savings

Hardware refresh avoidance

$3K–$10K / server

Servers need refresh every 5-7 years. Cloud eliminates this CapEx entirely.

Data centre costs

$1K–$3K / month / rack

Colocation, power, cooling, physical security. Cloud shifts to OpEx and eliminates most.

Staff time reallocation

15–30% of IT time

Infra maintenance frees engineering time for product. Quantify as salary × time saved.

Elastic scaling

15–40% compute saving

On-prem provisions for peak. Cloud scales down off-peak. Big for variable workloads.

DR simplification

$20K–$100K / yr

Cloud provides built-in geo-redundancy. Replaces dedicated DR site and licences.

Licence optimisation

Varies widely

Moving Oracle / SQL Server to RDS or Cloud SQL can cut DB licensing 30-80%.

Honest assessment

When cloud migration does not pay off

Five scenarios where staying on-premise is financially better. We are an independent calculator, we will not pretend the cloud always wins.

  1. Stable workloads on depreciated hardware

    Servers 3+ years old, fully depreciated, predictable demand. Cloud monthly may exceed current spend.

  2. Regulatory on-premise requirements

    Data sovereignty rules requiring physical location. Either not feasible or requires expensive sovereign cloud.

  3. Very high-egress workloads

    Workloads streaming TBs of data daily. Cloud egress costs can wipe out compute savings.

  4. On-prem already at peak efficiency

    Highly utilised data centre with dedicated team. The compute saving is small to negative.

  5. Rushed, under-defined scope

    Wave one delivers but discovery gaps surface massive parallel running cost. Better to delay and re-scope.

Industry benchmarks

Published ROI references

Forrester (TEI)

155% ROI · 6 mo payback

Well-executed Atlassian Cloud migration case

IDC

192% 5-yr ROI

Azure migrations · Microsoft-sponsored, caveat

McKinsey

30–40% TCO reduction

Median 3-year cloud savings vs on-prem

Gartner

12–30 mo payback

Median across mid-market migrations

Medians, not guarantees. Actual results vary substantially by starting point, strategy, and execution.

FAQ

ROI questions

Q. What is the typical ROI of cloud migration?

Forrester reports 155% ROI over 3 years for well-executed cloud migrations. IDC reports 192% 5-year ROI for Azure migrations (Azure-sponsored, treat with caution). McKinsey reports median 30-40% total cost reduction vs on-premise over 3 years. Actual ROI depends heavily on starting point, migration strategy, and whether hidden costs are managed.

Q. How long does cloud migration take to pay off?

Break-even typically occurs 12-30 months after go-live for well-executed migrations. If monthly cloud savings are $5,000 and migration cost was $100,000, break-even is 20 months. Refactor migrations take longer to break even (higher upfront cost) but save more long-term. Small businesses with lift-and-shift to lower-cost tiers (AWS Lightsail, Azure SMB) can break even in 8-14 months.

Q. When is cloud migration NOT worth it?

Cloud migration may not provide positive ROI when: workloads have stable predictable demand and fully depreciated on-premise hardware, regulatory requirements demand on-premise storage, very high-egress workloads where cloud transfer costs exceed compute savings, organisation already runs on-premise at peak efficiency, or migration scope is rushed and under-defined.

Q. What drives cloud migration savings?

Main savings sources: avoided hardware refresh ($3K-$10K per server every 5-7 years), data centre space and power ($1K-$3K per month per rack), staff time reallocation from infra maintenance to development, elastic scaling vs peak provisioning, simplified disaster recovery, and software licensing optimisation when moving to managed databases.

Updated 2 May 2026